Marcelo Montecinos

As 7 million people prepare for total quarantine, some question if it is an over-reaction, considering that the mortality rate of SARS-CoV-2 in Chile is one of the lowest in the world.

Chile’s Health Minister Jaime Manalich confirmed, on May 13, 2020, that the rate was low, about 1%, but that the drastic actions by the government were necessary in order not to reach double-digit mortality rates as those found in many other countries.

The first thing that one should be aware of is the fact that the 1% mortality rate figure is open to interpretation:

The government’s official numbers divide the number of deaths by the total amount of people tested positive of Covid-19 since case number 1. It does not come up with a percentage derived from closed cases, as it should be, and can be seen in this graphic (Worldometer).

In Chile, the amount of people who have recuperated from this particular coronavirus is 14,865. If we add the 346 people who died, we come up with a total of 15,211. These are the total number of cases with a definite outcome; either they got better, or died. If we do the math with these numbers, the real mortality rate is only .022%; hardly a percentage that merits the Draconian measures taken by the government today, especially considering the economic hardship this will result in to the populace, and the country.

In only having less than one-quarter of one percent fatally succumbing to this killer virus, Chile appears to be doing something right, but added lock-up of its population remains questionable.

Only time will tell…